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Poll puts Shays, Farrell in dead heat

By Mark Ginocchio
Staff Writer

October 24, 2006

Support for Rep. Christopher Shays, R-Conn., is declining as concerns over the Iraq war increase -- placing him in a dead heat with Democratic challenger Diane Farrell, according to a Hartford Courant poll released yesterday.

The poll, conducted by the University of Connecticut's Center for Survey Research and Analysis, shows Shays and Farrell each pulling 43 percent of the vote with 9 percent undecided two weeks before Election Day.

When compared with a similar UConn poll conducted by Greenwich Time and The Advocate earlier this month, the numbers show that Farrell is gaining ground among unaffiliated voters whose concerns about the war have increased 12 percent in the past three weeks.

Nearly 38 percent of all likely voters said the war was the most important issue in the race, compared with 28 percent in The Advocate and Greenwich Time poll.

The increasing focus on Iraq may benefit Farrell, said Monika McDermott, research director for the center.

"As people focus on the campaign, they are starting to hear Farrell's message more," McDermott said. "They are also considering how October is one of the bloodiest months in quite some time in Iraq."

Farrell seems to be picking up support among unaffiliated voters that had been leaning toward voting for Shays three weeks ago, McDermott said.

The center randomly interviewed 805 likely voters from Oct. 16 to Oct. 22. The margin of error for the survey was plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.

Voters focusing on Iraq "underscore's Diane's message since she ran the last time" against Shays in 2004, said Jan Spiegel, Farrell's communications director.

"The poll shows that voters understand Chris Shays is a Republican who has supported the president's policies," Spiegel said. "Voters are looking for a change."

Michael Sohn, Shays' campaign manager, said the incumbent remains "focused on making sure voters know his 19-year record of independent leadership, accomplishment and fighting for the 4th District's transportation, housing and economic development priorities. Christopher's accomplishments stand in stark contrast to his opponent's partisan rhetoric and tax-and-spend record."

The poll shows Shays' approval rating shrinking from 59 percent earlier this month to 45 percent.

More than half of likely voters -- 54 percent -- said they would like to see the Democrats take control of Congress, compared with 29 percent who would prefer the Republicans remain in power.

But despite the candidates holding an unprecedented 11 debates this month, only 48 percent of likely voters were aware of the forums, according to the poll.

Libertarian candidate Phil Maymin of Greenwich continued to criticize the polling methodology because the questions do not mention him by name.

"Other" candidates only received 1 percent of the vote.

"This is a two-party push-poll," Maymin said. "From my perspective, the undecided voters are most receptive to my message."