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16% undecided in 4th District race, poll finds

By Mark Ginocchio
Staff Writer

October 3, 2006

©The Advocate, 2006

An Advocate/Greenwich Time poll shows incumbent U.S. Rep. Christopher Shays, R-Bridgeport, has a 4 percent lead over Democratic challenger Diane Farrell among likely voters in the hotly contested 4th Congressional District race.

The poll, conducted by the University of Connecticut's Center for Survey Research and Analysis, shows 44 percent of likely voters support Shays while 40 percent support Farrell.

Sixteen percent of likely voters polled in the 17 municipalities that comprise lower Fairfield County's 4th district said they remain undecided. In addition, 20 percent of Shays supporters and 15 percent of Farrell supporters said they may change their mind before Election Day on Nov. 7.

When those who lean toward a certain candidate are included, Shays leads Farrell by 5 percentage points, 46 percent to 41 percent, with 12 percent undecided.

The poll of 753 registered voters was conducted Sept. 25 to Oct. 1 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.

The results reveal that attempts by the former Westport first selectwoman to link Shays with the unpopular Republican President Bush have not been entirely successful. Shays' approval rating is a healthy 59 percent despite strong opposition among respondents to the war in Iraq, Bush and national policies.

Sixty-three percent of respondents disapprove of Bush; 67 percent believe the "country is on the wrong track;" and 55 percent said the Iraq war was the wrong decision.

"This clearly shows (Farrell's) strategy isn't working," said Monika McDermott, research director for the center. "That's not to say with the continuing bad news for the Republican Party that it can't change, but at this point, it hasn't affected Shays."

Shays has been a staunch supporter of the Iraq war and has taken 14 trips there. Shays said in August he would consider a timeline to bring troops home to serve as an incentive to Iraqi factions to reconcile their differences, but Farrell dismissed his statement as rhetoric.

When Shays and Farrell squared off two years ago, the incumbent ultimately won by 4 percentage points, 52 percent to 48 percent.

Though she hasn't gained ground on Shays, Farrell's camp was pleased with the poll results, saying it was a bad sign for an incumbent not to have 50 percent of the vote a month before the election.

"The poll shows that people are looking for a change in leadership," Farrell spokesman Roy Occhiogrosso said.

Voters may not disapprove of Shays, but they're unhappy with the Bush administration, which could sway the undecideds in Farrell's favor, Occhiogrosso, added.

Shays is "energized and focused on making sure the 4th District residents know his record of accomplishment and independence," campaign spokesman Brett Cody said. "It's worth noting that despite three years of partisan attacks from his opponent, this poll suggests Christopher has maintained a strong job approval rating."

Many voters said they are unfamiliar with the candidates' positions: 35 percent of poll respondents don't know how Shays voted on the authorization of force for the war; almost 62 percent don't know how he voted on No Child Left Behind; 46 percent don't know his stand on the Homeland Security Act; and 46 percent are unaware of his vote for the Patriot Act.

The numbers reflect a "volatile and unanchored electorate" that could break for either candidate, said Gary Rose, chairman of the department of government and politics at Sacred Heart University in Fairfield.

"These numbers are still close . . . but (Shays) is still holding his own and incumbency is a powerful force," Rose said. "But (Farrell) is not your ordinary challenger. Shays is still vulnerable."

Poll respondents were not asked about voting for Libertarian candidate Philip Maymin or Green Party representative Richard Duffee, prompting a rebuke of the numbers from Maymin.

The poll found that less than 1 percent of respondents would vote for "other" candidates besides Shays or Farrell.

After their release, Maymin said the numbers were "statistically unsound."

McDermott said the two third-party candidates were included in the "other" category if the respondent mentioned them by name.

Before developing questions for polls, the center sends out volunteers to gauge support for all the candidates, McDermott said. If Maymin or Duffee received more than 2 percent of the vote, they would be added to future polls, she said.