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4th District candidates look for an edge

By Mark Ginocchio
Staff Writer

October 29, 2006

With a little more than a week to go in a deadlocked race, candidates in the 4th Congressional District said their final campaign push will focus on anyone who could tip the balance in their favor.

Democratic challenger Diane Farrell said getting voters to the polls in a nonpresidential year is always a challenge, but she expects turnout to be better this year.

"The high profile of this race is very helpful for a challenger because it raises awareness of the issues," said Farrell, who in recent weeks has been followed by media from France and Japan as well as the usual throng of state reporters.

When Farrell first challenged U.S. Rep. Christopher Shays, R-Bridgeport, two years ago, she captured the electorate in the district's cities -- Bridgeport, Stamford and Norwalk -- but lost the suburbs that typically vote Republican.

Political observers said the former first selectwoman of Westport could have beaten Shays in 2004 if she had captured a larger percentage of the city vote, so she should target that bloc in the final week this year.

"She can't take her base for granted," said Gary Rose, chairman of the department of Government and Politics at Sacred Heart University in Fairfield. "The Democratic base in Bridgeport is critical, as well as in cities like Norwalk and Stamford."

In such a close race, Farrell said she can't target one group over another.

"Our focus is on everyone," she said. "We can't rule out any area."

Despite losing by 4 percentage points to Shays last time, Farrell said she has not changed her campaign strategy. Because many of her key talking points in 2004, especially the Iraq war, are still major issues now, she sees no reason to change.

"I've always said that this race is a continuation of the dialogue from two years ago," Farrell said.

A recent Hartford Courant/University of Connecticut Poll has Shays and Farrell getting 43 percent of the vote each, with 9 percent still undecided. Shays slipped a bit from a poll earlier this month that had him at 45 percent to Farrell's 41 percent.

After 19 years in Congress, Shays' campaign knows it has a major fight on its hands, but it is using the tension of the race as a rallying point.

"For every election, when it comes to fundraising, Chris would only ask for what he needed," said Michael Sohn, Shays' campaign manager. "Now, we really need it."

Shays' camp is confident their Republican base will turn out in large numbers for the election. "We think the Republican base is stronger around Chris than it has ever been before," Sohn said. "We believe our opponent has energized our base because she is so partisan and offers no solutions."

Like Farrell, Sohn wouldn't specify any municipality or demographic they're targeting in the next week.

"In a race this close, everyone is key," he said.

Local Republicans rallying around Shays will help his re-election chances, but Ken Dautrich, a professor of public policy at UConn, said the incumbent must steer clear of the Bush administration. Dautrich called Shays' recent import of former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich and White House spokesman Tony Snow a strategic mistake.

"It might help raise money, but it's hurting his image," Dautrich said of the fundraising events.

Shays' use of New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg, a moderate Republican, in some of his advertisements is a good step, Dautrich said.

Both candidates need to aggressively pursue independent or unaffiliated voters, Dautrich said.

"They don't need to preach to the choir," he said. "They don't have to convince Democrats to vote for Democrats or Republicans to vote for Republicans."

Independents may be a key vote for Farrell and Shays, but one candidate who also is targeting those voters, and who could be a spoiler for the incumbent, is Libertarian candidate Phil Maymin. Maymin, who petitioned his way onto the ballot in July, participated in more than half of the 11 congressional debates, surprising observers with his knowledge of the issues and personality.

"He's a player," Rose said of Maymin. "He has an impact, especially in a race so tight. He may be able to steal enough support from the laissez-faire Republican vote to affect Shays."

To gain more recognition, Maymin said he's targeting college students and other groups who typically don't turn out to vote. "Some people don't turn out because they want to send a message," Maymin said. "I'm telling them there's a way to send a more powerful message."

Maymin thinks he can attract unaffiliated voters because "Libertarianism is not just a label. When people hear what I have to say, that I'm about freedom and small government, they love the message."